南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2024, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (2): 257–266.doi: 10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2024.02.007

• • 上一篇    

登陆我国内陆热带气旋的衰减趋势分析

赵熠轩, 仇欣, 王其伟()   

  1. 中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室，南京大学大气科学学院，南京，210023
  • 收稿日期:2024-02-01 出版日期:2024-03-30 发布日期:2024-03-29
  • 通讯作者: 王其伟 E-mail:qwwang@nju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金联合基金(U2342203);国家自然科学基金(42175062);重大研究计划集成项目(91937301)

Analysis of the decay trend of tropical cyclones landing in China's mainland

Yixuan Zhao, Xin Qiu, Qiwei Wang()   

  1. Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather, Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
  • Received:2024-02-01 Online:2024-03-30 Published:2024-03-29
  • Contact: Qiwei Wang E-mail:qwwang@nju.edu.cn

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摘要：

全球变暖背景下，登陆热带气旋（Tropical Cyclone，TC）的衰减速度是否放缓存在争议，登陆时强度不同的TC的衰减趋势是否一致还不清楚.利用两个描述登陆TC衰减的物理量，即登陆衰减时间尺度τ和登陆衰减维持时间D，研究了1980-2021年登陆我国内陆TC的衰减变化趋势，并探讨了TC登陆强度分档对衰减变化趋势的影响.对于登陆我国内陆的TC，无论是τ还是D，整体来看都没有随时间显著变化的趋势.进一步将TC的登陆强度分为热带风暴（Tropical Storm,TS）、强热带风暴（Severe Tropical Storm,STS）和台风（Typhoon，TY）档，发现不同强度档的登陆TC，其登陆地点以及登陆后的路径体现出不同特征，使得不同强度档登陆TC的衰减趋势存在差异.从TS档到STS档再到TY档，τ随时间的变化趋势从增加到减小再到明显减小，呈连续改变，而D的变化趋势从增加到减小再到增加，未呈连续改变，表明登陆TC的衰减变化趋势在不同登陆强度条件下存在不一致性.从显著性上看，只有TY档登陆TC的τ的变化满足90%置信区间显著下降趋势，表明登陆TC衰减趋势在不同登陆强度条件下存在不确定性.

关键词: 热带气旋, 衰减趋势, 登陆强度, 衰减时间尺度, 衰减维持时间

Abstract:

In the context of global warming,it is controversial whether the decay of landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) slows down,and it is unclear whether the trend of decay of landfalling TCs with different landing intensity is consistent. In this paper,two physical quantities describing landfall TC decay,decay time scale τ and decay duration D,are used to study the trend of landfall TC decay for TCs landing in China's mainland from 1980 to 2021,and the influence of different landing intensity on the trend is discussed. For all the TCs landing in China's mainland,the trend over time for τ or D has no significant change. In this paper,the landfalling TCs are further divided into groups of tropical storm (TS),severe tropical storm (STS) and typhoon (TY) according to their landing intensities. It is found that the landing sites and post?landing paths of the different TC groups show different characteristics,resulting in different decay trends. From TS group to STS group and then to TY group,the trend of τ over time changes continuously from increasing to decreasing to obviously decreasing,while the trend of D changes from increasing to decreasing to increasing,and does not change continuously,indicating that the decay trend is inconsistent for TCs with different landing intensity. From the significance point of view,only the trend of τ of TY group meets the significant decline trend of 90% confidence interval,indicating that the decay trend is uncertain for TCs with different landing intensity.

Key words: tropical cyclone, decay trend, landing intensity, decay time scale, decay duration

中图分类号: 

  • P444

图1

登陆我国内陆TC的筛选区域Surrounded by dotted lines and high?precision coastlines."

图2

1980-2021年不同登陆强度档下TC的路径和强度分布TC intensity at landing time is (a) above TS， (b) TS，(c) STS and (d) TY."

图3

不同登陆强度档下登陆TC的数量随时间的变化"

图4

不同登陆强度档下τ随时间的变化趋势TC intensity at landing time is (a) above TS, (b) TS, (c) STS,and (d) TY. The solid gray dots represent the average sample from year to year, the black line represents the regression line,and the blue curves represent the 95% confidence interval."

图5

τ与V0的回归关系The blue curves represent the 95% confidence interval."

图6

不同登陆强度档下D随时间的变化趋势TC intensity at landing time is (a) above TS, (b) TS, (c) STS, and (d) TY. The solid gray dots represent the average sample from year to year, the black line represents the regression line,and the blue curves represent the 95% confidence interval"

图7

D与V0的回归关系The blue curves represent the 95% confidence interval."

图8

τ与D的回归关系The blue curves represent the 95% confidence interval."

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