南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2022, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (5): 766–779.doi: 10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2022.05.003

• • 上一篇    

上海地区三类主要暴雨天气的云微物理和边界层敏感性模拟研究

徐之骁1, 漆梁波2, 王元1()   

  1. 1.中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室，南京大学大气科学学院，南京，210023
    2.上海市气象局，上海中心气象台，上海，200030
  • 收稿日期:2022-07-30 出版日期:2022-09-30 发布日期:2022-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 王元 E-mail:yuanasm@nju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507300);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0105);国家自然科学基金(91837207)

Numerical study of sensitivities of three major types of heavy rainfall in the Shanghai region to microphysical and planetary bounary layer processes

Zhixiao Xu1, Liangbo Qi2, Yuan Wang1()   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather，Ministry of Education，School of Atmosphere Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
    2.Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, 200030, China
  • Received:2022-07-30 Online:2022-09-30 Published:2022-09-30
  • Contact: Yuan Wang E-mail:yuanasm@nju.edu.cn

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摘要：

利用中国气象局上海台风所的WARMS高分辨率区域模式研究了上海地区三类主要的暴雨天气（准静止锋雨带型、副高边缘强对流型以及暖区雷暴型）对云微物理和边界层过程的敏感性.结果表明，不同云微物理和边界层参数化方案的组合对强降水中心的位置和强度影响较大，但是对主要雨带及走向影响不大.准静止锋雨带型采用Thompson方案模拟的整体降水量更多，WSM6方案模拟的强降水相关性更好，评分更高；副高边缘强对流型中WSM6?MYJ组合激发上海本地对流的效果更明显，但整个雨带来看Thompson方案更有优势；暖区雷暴型中WSM6?MYJ组合优势明显.总体上，Thompson?YSU组合能够模拟出准静止锋雨带型暴雨中丰富的液水含量和冰相粒子，以及较强的整层抬升作用；WSM6?MYJ组合则在副高边缘强对流型和暖区雷暴型这类型暴雨中刻画了较明显的强对流结构，使得地面降水更为强盛.

关键词: 暴雨, 云微物理和边界层方案, 数值模拟

Abstract:

Based on the high?resolution operational regional model WARMS in the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,this work studies the sensitivities of three types of heavy rainfall (quasi?stationary frontal rain belt,subtropical high?edge strong convection,and warm?sector thunderstorms) in the Shanghai region to different microphysical and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes. The results show that different schemes mainly affect the location and intensity of the heavy rainfall center,while having little effect on the location and pattern of the primary rain belt. For quasi?stationary frontal rain belt,the Thompson scheme simulates a larger area of precipitation,and the WSM6 scheme has a better correlation and higher score. The Thompson?YSU combination has the best performance,despite of some positioning biases. For subtropical high?edge strong convection,the WSM6?MYJ combination is more effective in triggering local convections in Shanghai,but the Thompson scheme has a slightly higher TS score for the whole rain belt. The WSM6?MYJ combination also has obvious advantages for the warm?sector thunderstorms. In general,the Thompson?YSU combination can simulate abundant liquid water and ice particles of the quasi?stationary frontal rain belt,along with the strong uplift across whole layers. The WSM6?MYJ combination has more obviously strong convective structures for the heavy rainfall in the subtropical high?edge and warm?sector thunderstorms,which strengthen the surface precipitation.

Key words: heavy rainfall, microphysical and planetary boundary layer schemes, numerical simulation

中图分类号: 

  • P435.1

图1

模式模拟区域"

表1

上海地区暴雨天气类型划分比较"

划分类型个例上海地区发生时期最强降水时段
准静止锋雨带型20120908

冷暖空气交汇

系统性降水

盛夏末期下半夜至早晨
20140831
副高边缘强对流型20100826

暖区

对流性降水

梅雨期结束后下午至傍晚
20130825
暖区雷暴型20100729

暖区

对流性降水

盛夏下午至傍晚
20130801

图2

500 hPa位势高度场（黑色实线，单位：gpm），水汽通量（阴影，单位：mg·（kg·s）-1）以及假相当位温（彩色实线，单位：K）：2014年9月1日08时（a,d）；2010年8月26日20时（b,e）；2013年8月1日14时（c,f）The strongest precipitation moment，the black dashed arrow is the direction of the water vapor channel，the red frame is Shanghai and surrounding areas"

图3

2014年8月31日08时至9月1日08时、2010年8月26日08时至8月27日08时、2013年8月1日08时至8月2日08时的24 h累积降水实况（a,f,k）和不同参数化方案组合模拟结果（单位：mm）（b,g,l） Thompson?YSU,（c,h,m） Thompson?MYJ,（d,i,n） WSM6?YSU,（e,j,o） WSM6?MYJ"

表2

不同方案组合对不同等级降水量的TS评分结果"

类型个例方案组合TS评分

模拟最大

降水量（ mm ）

≥10 mm≥25 mm≥50 mm≥100 mm
准静止锋雨带型2014083110.840.240.030.00173.54练塘镇
20.840.060.060.00103.28金山
30.720.500.400.40133.66崇明
40.840.570.480.00107.42明珠湖
副高边缘强对流型2010082610.360.140.15-54.91商榻镇
20.490.140.25-73.72明珠湖
30.610.190.14-95.06崇明
40.590.350.180.00109.92明珠湖
暖区雷暴型2013080110.500.350.11-98.96森林公园
20.360.150.00-70.08明珠湖
30.330.200.00-77.93F1赛车场
40.410.160.000.00115.07明珠湖

图4

上海地区3 h强降水站点分布图（粉色点为模拟大于50 mm站点，橙色点为模拟35~50 mm站点，蓝色点为实况大于50 mm站点，绿色点为35~50 mm站点）从左至右列依次是实况图和Thompson?YSU，Thompson?MYJ，WSM6?YSU，WSM6?MYJ方案组合"

表3

不同类型暴雨短时强降水最优方案组合"

划分类型个例

每1 h大于35 mm

模拟能力和潜力

3 h （1 h）

强降水站点个数

3 h （1 h）

强降水站点分布

准静止锋雨带型20120908

Thompson⁃YSU

Thompson⁃YSU

Thompson⁃YSU

Thompson⁃YSU

都存在落区偏差

都存在落区偏差

20140831
副高边缘强对流型20100826

WSM6⁃MYJ

WSM6⁃MYJ

WSM6⁃MYJ

WSM6⁃MYJ

Thompson⁃MYJ

Thompson⁃MYJ

20130825
暖区雷暴型20100729

WSM6⁃MYJ

WSM6⁃MYJ

WSM6⁃MYJ

WSM6⁃MYJ

WSM6⁃MYJ

WSM6⁃MYJ

20130801

图5

不同暴雨类型20140831个例（a,b,c,d）、20100826个例（e,f,g,h）、20130801个例（i,j,k,l）的各物理方案组合模拟的区域（30.5°~32°N，120.5°~122°E）平均冰相粒子（云冰、雪、霰）含量（阴影，单位：g·kg-1）随时间演变：（a，e，i） Thompson?YSU，（b，f，j） Thompson?MYJ;（c，g，k） WSM6?YSU，（d，h，l） WSM6?MYJThe dotted lines show the simulated surface hourly rainfall (unit：mm) and the gray dashed lines are isotherms"

图6

同图5，但为云中液态水（云水、雨水）含量（蓝色虚线代表垂直速度，单位：m·s-1）"

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