南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2024, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (2): 181–193.doi: 10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2024.02.001

• •    下一篇

“21.7”河南暴雨的集合敏感性分析

赵志宇1, 张进2, 雷荔傈1(), 张熠1   

  1. 1.中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室，南京大学大气科学学院，南京，210093
    2.地球系统数值预报中心，中国气象局，北京，100081
  • 收稿日期:2024-02-24 出版日期:2024-03-30 发布日期:2024-03-29
  • 通讯作者: 雷荔傈 E-mail:lililei@nju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41922036)

Ensemble sensitivity analysis for the "21.7" Henan extreme rainstorm

Zhiyu Zhao1, Jin Zhang2, Lili Lei1(), Yi Zhang1   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather，Ministry of Education，and School of Atmospheric Sciences，Nanjing University，Nanjing，210093，China
    2.Center for Earth System Modeling and Predictino，China Meteorological Administration，Beijing，100081，China
  • Received:2024-02-24 Online:2024-03-30 Published:2024-03-29
  • Contact: Lili Lei E-mail:lililei@nju.edu.cn

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摘要：

河南郑州“21.7”特大暴雨是中国近年来发生的一场严重气象灾害，对此暴雨事件的数值预报模式表现出较大的不确定性，对暴雨落区和降水强度的预测均存在偏差.目前，“21.7”河南暴雨的形成机理已经得到广泛研究，但针对其集合敏感性分析的研究却十分有限.集合敏感性分析是一种利用集合预报来估计模式预报对初始场敏感性的方法，可诊断极端天气过程的影响因子、对数值模式集合预报不确定性进行分析等.因此，针对“21.7”河南暴雨个例，利用WRF?ARW模式，结合集合初始条件与多物理过程以及物理过程扰动等方法，构建不同的区域模式集合预报.利用集合敏感性分析方法开展“21.7”河南暴雨的可预报性和影响该暴雨的因子分析.结果表明，“21.7”河南暴雨对初始条件的温度场、湿度场、风场和位势高度场扰动具有敏感性，增强郑州地区的气旋性环流、改变郑州上空的气温、降低郑州地区的气压、增强台风“烟花”的强度可以使此次暴雨的降水强度增强.本研究能够增进对“21.7”河南暴雨成因的理解，并改进集合预报.

关键词: 集合敏感性分析, 集合预报, 初始条件, 河南暴雨

Abstract:

The "21.7" extreme rainstorm in Zhengzhou，Henan Province，was a severe meteorological disaster that has occurred in China in recent years. The numerical models show significant uncertainty in this rainfall event，and there are deviations in the forecast of rainfall areas and intensity. Currently，the formation mechanism of the "21.7" Henan rainstorm has been widely studied，but research on its ensemble sensitivity analysis is very limited. Ensemble sensitivity analysis is a method that utilizes ensemble forecasts to estimate the sensitivity of model forecasts to initial conditions. It diagnoses the influencing factors of extreme weather processes and analyze the uncertainty of ensemble forecasts. Therefore，this study focuses on the individual case of the "21.7" Henan rainstorm，using the WRF?ARW model，combined with ensemble initial conditions，multi?physics，and model perturbations to construct serveral regional model ensemble forecasts. Ensemble sensitivity analysis is used to assess the predictability of the "21.7" Henan rainstorm and analyze the factors influencing this rainfall. The results show that the "21.7" Henan rainstorm is sensitive to the temperature field，humidity field，wind field，and geopotential height field perturbations of the initial conditions. Enhancing the cyclonic circulation in the Zhengzhou area，changing the temperature over Zhengzhou，reducing the air pressure in the Zhengzhou area，or strengthening the intensity of Typhoon In?Fa can enhance the precipitation intensity of this rainfall. This study improves understanding of the causes of the "21.7" Henan rainstorm and enhance ensemble forecasts.

Key words: ensemble sensitivity analysis, ensemble forecast, initial condition, Henan extremely heavy rainfall event

中图分类号: 

  • P456.7

图1

2021年7月18日00时（UTC+8，下同）至7月21日00时河南及其临近区域的累积降水量分布（单位：mm）：(a)代表7月18日00时至7月19日00时24 h的累积降水量分布，(b)代表7月18日00时至7月20日00时48 h的累积降水量分布，(c)代表7月18日00时至7月21日00时72 h的累积降水量分布（红色星号代表郑州所在位置）"

图2

2021年7月18日00时至7月21日00时的累积降水量分布（单位：mm）The black crosses denote the locations of typhoon In?fa and typhoon Cempaka，respectively.The red asterisk represents the location of Zhengzhou."

The outer frame of (a) represents the d01 domain， with the inner gray solid line box representing the d02 domain. The red box in (b)"

表

集合敏感性试验设置"

试验名称区域与分辨率物理过程模式扰动
积云对流参数化边界层参数化
Exp_SD12 km单层网格MSKFYSU无
Exp_ND12 km网格+2.4 km涡旋跟踪网格MSKFGFS EDMF
Exp_NDMPMSKF,KFeta

YSU，E–ε,MYNN

GFS EDMF

Exp_NDPBLPMSKFGFS EDMF边界层物理扰动
Exp_NDSPMSKFGFS EDMF边界层物理扰动，SPPT，SKEB，SPPT+SKEB
Exp_NDMPSPMSKF,KFeta

YSU，E–ε,MYNN,

GFS EDMF

边界层物理扰动，SPPT，SKEB，SPPT+SKEB

图4

2021年7月18日00时至7月21日00时河南郑州区域降水量曲线图（单位：mm）The two vertical black dashed lines represent the accumulated precipitation periods selected for the experiment."

图5

Exp_SD中预报响应函数J1对模式变量的敏感性The black crosses denote the locations of typhoon In?fa and typhoon Cempaka，respectively.The red asterisk represents the location of Zhengzhou."

图6

Exp_SD中预报响应函数J2对模式变量的敏感性The black crosses denote the locations of typhoon In?fa and typhoon Cempaka，respectively.The red asterisk represents the location of Zhengzhou."

图7

Exp_ND中预报响应函数J1对模式变量的敏感性The black crosses denote the locations of typhoon In?fa and typhoon Cempaka，respectively.The red asterisk represents the location of Zhengzhou."

图8

Exp_NDPBLP中预报响应函数J1对模式变量的敏感性The black crosses denote the locations of typhoon In?fa and typhoon Cempaka，respectively.The red asterisk represents the location of Zhengzhou."

图9

Exp_NDSP中预报响应函数J1对模式变量的敏感性The black crosses denote the locations of typhoon In?fa and typhoon Cempaka，respectively.The red asterisk represents the location of Zhengzhou."

图10

Exp_NDMP中预报响应函数J1对模式变量的敏感性The black crosses denote the locations of typhoon In?fa and typhoon Cempaka，respectively.The red asterisk represents the location of Zhengzhou."

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