南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (6): 847854.
王娜1,陈星1,程寿全2
Wang Na1, Chen Xing1, Cheng Shouquan
摘要: 本文利用自动天气分型方法将1990—2012年广州增城每日天气分型并确定与台风降水事件相关的天气型。自动天气分型分为三个步骤,主成分分析,平均联系距离法以及判别分析,天气分型结果联系台风日降水资料可找出与台风降水相关的天气型。广州市增城区1990—2012年地面小时资料(包括气温,海平面气压,露点温度,南北向风速,东西向风速,总云量六个气象要素)经自动天气分型方法得26种主要天气型,联系台风日降水资料可确定其中四类天气型与台风降水强相关,两类天气型与台风降水部分相关。台风相关降水天气型(包括四类台风降水强相关天气型和两类台风降水部分相关天气型)包含23个台风强降水事件(日降水量≥50 mm)中的22个,包含全部7个日降水量≥100 mm的台风强降水事件。结果表明利用自动天气分型方法能较好地判定与台风相关的强降水天气事件。该方法可利用未来降尺度GCM气候资料估计未来气候变化情境下与台风相关强降水事件变化。
[1] 殷洁,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.广东省台风灾害经济损失风险评估[J].Journal Of Resources And Ecology,2011(02):144-150 [2] 谭冠日黄劲松郑昌幸一种客观的天气气候分类方法热带气象62. [3] 田宏伟,谭建国,杜子璇.用TSI天气分型方法分析上海环境空气质量.气象与环境科学,2008,31(1):51-55. [4] 谭建国殷鹤宝林松柏等上海热浪与健康监测预警系统应用气象学报2002,13(3):356-367. [5] Kalkstein LS. A new approach to evaluate the impact of climate on human mortality. Environ Health Perspect , 1991, 96:145–150. [6] Cheng CS, Campbell M, Li Q, et al. Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and airpollution on human mortality in south central Canada. Part I: historical analysis. Air Qual Atmos Health, 2008, 1:209–222. [7] Kalkstein LS, Corrigan P. A synoptic climatological approach for geographical analysis: Assessment of sulfur dioxide concentrations.Ann Assoc Am Geogr, 1986, 76:381–395. [8] Cheng CS, Campbell M, Li Q, et al. A synoptic climatological approach to assess climate impact on air quality in south–central Canada. Part I: historical analysis. Water Air Soil Pollut, 2007, 182:131–148. [9] Cheng CS, Auld H, Li G, et al. Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci, 2007, 7:71–87. [10] Cheng CS, Qian Li, Guilong Li et al. Synoptic weather typing and typhoon with an application to Chiayi, Taiwan: potential for future climate change impact analysis.?Paddy and Water Environment,2009, 7, 293–300. [11] DeGaetano. Delineation of mesoscale climate zones in the northeastern United States using a novel approach to cluster analysis. J Clim, 1996, 9:1765–1782. |
No related articles found! |
|