南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 677688.
李嘉鹏,汤剑平**
Li Jia-Peng,Tang Jian-Ping
摘要: 木文采用物理过程扰动方法,针对中国东南地区建立了基于Weather Research and Forecas- ting( WRF)模式的短期集合预报系统.利用美国国家环境预报中心全球数据同化系统的高空资料和预报区域内1000多个站点(包括基准站、基木站和一般站)的地面观测资料对短期集合预报系统2010年5,6月份的预报结果进行了检验,分析了物理过程参数化方案和集合平均方法对气象要素预报效果的影响.结果表明:基于WRF模式的短期集合预报系统对我国东南地区高空及地面要素有一定的预报能
力.从单个模式成员和集合平均的结果来看,在整个预报时段(60 h)内都能较好地预报;不同高度上的气象要素和不同量级的降水对物理过程参数化方案的敏感性不同,预报效果也存在差异.集合平均方法对于大部分气象要素场的预报效果超过单个模式成员.
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