南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 336–345.

• •    下一篇

 基于小波消噪与秩次集对分析的水文时间序列预测模型*

 何菌丹,王栋**
  

  • 出版日期:2015-09-10 发布日期:2015-09-10
  • 作者简介: (南京大学地球科学与工程学院水科学系,南京,210093)
  • 基金资助:
     国家自然科学基金(41071018,41030746,51190090);南京大学青年骨干教师和优秀中青年学科带头人培养计划

 Hydrologic temporal series prediction model based on
wavelet de-noising and rank and set-pair analysis

 He Han-Dan,Wang Dong
  

  • Online:2015-09-10 Published:2015-09-10
  • About author: (School of Earth Science and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210093,China)

摘要:  对水文现象观测得到的水文时间序列,通常具有趋势性、周期性和随机性等多项特征.特别是在
大尺度条件下,传统水文时间序列预测模型存在构建方法单一、多未考虑噪声影响等问题.为此,木文将小
波消噪(wavelet de-noisc,WD)与秩次集对分析(rank and set pair analysis,RSPA)联合使用,建立了基于小波
消噪与秩次集对分析的水文时间序列预测模型(WI}RSPA模型),以充分发挥小波分析多尺度分析、消噪
的独特性能和RSPA概念清晰、计算简单的优势,并克服集合元素分类标准确定的主观性.应用所建模型
对黄河花园II站1998-2007年的年径流量以及郑州站2001-2009年的年降水量进行了预测,与传统模
型预测结果加以对比.结果显示,在合适消噪小波函数以及集合维数下,WD-RSPA模型能够有效避免噪
声对模型的影响,模型构建概念清晰、计算简单、预测结果精度较高,验证了所建模型的适用性和优越性.

Abstract:  Observations of hydrologic series are always with tendency, periodicity, randomness and other characteristics.
Especially under large-scale conditions,there are many problems in the hydrologic series prediction,such as single construr
tion method and without consideration of the noise.Therefore,a hydrologic series prediction modcl(WD-RSPA model)is de
vcloped on the combination of wavclet de-noise(WD) method and rank and set pair analysis( RSPA) , which takes advantage
of multi-scale analysis and noise reduction in wavclet analysis and clear concept, simple calculation,and overcomes the sub-
jectivity to certain the standard of set elements in RSPA.The WD-RSPA model is applied to predict the annual runoff of
Huayuankou Station and the annual precipitation of Ghengzhou Station.The prediction results by WD-RSPA model are com-
pared with results of traditional RSPA modcl,AR model and BP neural network model, It indicates that,with appropriate de
noising wavclet function and pair dimension,WD-RSPA model can avoid the impact of noise efficicntly,the concept to estab-
lish WD-RSPA model is clear,the computation is simper and the accuracy of prediction results is higher. Consequcntly,the
applicability,dependability and advantage of WD-RSPA model is validated.

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