南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 336345.
• • 下一篇
何菌丹,王栋**
He Han-Dan,Wang Dong
摘要: 对水文现象观测得到的水文时间序列,通常具有趋势性、周期性和随机性等多项特征.特别是在
大尺度条件下,传统水文时间序列预测模型存在构建方法单一、多未考虑噪声影响等问题.为此,木文将小
波消噪(wavelet de-noisc,WD)与秩次集对分析(rank and set pair analysis,RSPA)联合使用,建立了基于小波
消噪与秩次集对分析的水文时间序列预测模型(WI}RSPA模型),以充分发挥小波分析多尺度分析、消噪
的独特性能和RSPA概念清晰、计算简单的优势,并克服集合元素分类标准确定的主观性.应用所建模型
对黄河花园II站1998-2007年的年径流量以及郑州站2001-2009年的年降水量进行了预测,与传统模
型预测结果加以对比.结果显示,在合适消噪小波函数以及集合维数下,WD-RSPA模型能够有效避免噪
声对模型的影响,模型构建概念清晰、计算简单、预测结果精度较高,验证了所建模型的适用性和优越性.
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