南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2024, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (1): 158–167.doi: 10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2024.01.016

• • 上一篇    

中国特大城市群PM2.5污染及健康负担的时空演变特征

巫燕园1, 刘逸凡2, 汤蓉1, 姜玲玲1, 王海鲲1,3,4()   

  1. 1.南京大学大气科学学院，南京，210023
    2.国家污染控制与资源化研究重点实验室，南京大学环境学院，南京，210023
    3.南京大学关键地球物质循环前沿科学中心，南京，210023
    4.江苏省气候变化协同创新中心，南京，210023
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-17 出版日期:2024-01-30 发布日期:2024-01-29
  • 通讯作者: 王海鲲 E-mail:wanghk@nju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(71974092)

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of PM2.5 pollution and health burden in mega⁃urban agglomerations of China

Yanyuan Wu1, Yifan Liu2, Rong Tang1, Lingling Jiang1, Haikun Wang1,3,4()   

  1. 1.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
    2.School of the Environment, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
    3.Science Center for Critical Earth Mater ial Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
    4.Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, 210023, China
  • Received:2023-09-17 Online:2024-01-30 Published:2024-01-29
  • Contact: Haikun Wang E-mail:wanghk@nju.edu.cn

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摘要：

我国过去数十年经历了快速的经济发展和城市化过程，也面临着严峻的空气污染问题，探究重点城市群PM2.5污染及其健康影响特征与趋势对于评估和优化污染控制政策具有重要意义.基于大气污染、人口特征等多源高分辨率数据，应用环境健康风险评估方法，分析和比较了2000-2020年京津冀、长三角、珠三角、成渝等四个特大城市群的PM2.5污染及其健康负担.结果表明，过去的二十一年中，京津冀的PM2.5污染最严重，长三角和成渝城市群次之，珠三角污染程度最轻；总体上四个城市群PM2.5年均浓度先增后降，2020年较2000年分别下降35.6%，43.9%，34.6%和49.7%.2020年京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝城市群的PM2.5归因死亡人数分别约为12.8万、14.0万、5.2万和9.0万，老龄化和人口增长是城市群大气污染健康负担增加的最主要原因，其中珠三角城市群人口因素贡献最大.PM2.5污染减轻是健康负担下降的主要驱动力，表明城市群大气污染治理取得显著的健康效益.未来需要加强人群健康视角的城市群PM2.5污染防控，特别要关注老年人群大气污染健康风险.

关键词: 城市群, PM2.5污染, 归因死亡, 时空变化, 驱动因素

Abstract:

With rapid economic development and urbanization over the past decades,China has suffered a severe PM2.5 pollution. The analysis of the characteristics and spatiotemporal trends of PM2.5 pollution and its health effects in typical urban agglomerations is vital for evaluating and optimizing pollution control policies. Based on multi?source high?resolution air pollution,population data,and health assessment methods,this study analyzed and compared PM2.5 pollution and its health burden in four mega?urban agglomerations Beijing?Tianjin?Hebei (BTH),Yangtze River Delta (YRD),Pearl River Delta (PRD),and Chengdu?Chongqing (CC) urban agglomerations during 2000-2020. The results showed that the PM2.5 pollution in BTH was the most serious,followed by the YRD and CC,and the PM2.5 pollution in PRD was the least polluted. The four urban agglomerations all experienced a "rise first and then fall" process of PM2.5 pollution,with annual average PM2.5 concentrations decreasing by 35.6%,43.9%,34.6%,and 49.7% during 2000-2020,respectively. In 2020,the PM2.5 attributable deaths in BTH,YRD,PRD,and CC were 128000,140000,52000,and 90000,respectively. Population growth and aging mainly contributed to the increase in the PM2.5 health burden,which contributed most to the PRD. The reduction of PM2.5 pollution was the main driving force to decrease the PM2.5 attributable health burden,suggesting that air pollution controls in urban agglomerations have achieved significant health benefits. In the future,it is necessary to strengthen the control measures of PM2.5 pollution in urban agglomerations from the perspective of population health,with special attention to the health risks of the elderly population.

Key words: urban agglomerations, PM2.5 pollution, attributable deaths, spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors

中图分类号: 

  • X513

表1

研究城市群的相关信息（2020年）"

城市群人口（亿）面积（万平方公里）城市化率二产占比人均GDP（万元）
京津冀1.1021.7268.6%28.0%7.8
长三角1.6521.1770.8%39.5%10.4
珠三角0.785.6274.2%39.5%8.8
成渝1.0318.5060.3%37.4%6.4

图1

2000-2020年四个城市群年均PM2.5浓度（①②③④分别表示《火电行业排放标准》（2011年）、《钢铁行业排放标准》（2012年）、“大气十条”（2013年）和“蓝天保卫战”（2018年）的实施年份）"

图2

2000-2020年四个城市群（a） PM2.5浓度分布和（b）十年际PM2.5浓度变化分布"

图3

2000，2010和2020年人群的PM2.5污染暴露分布"

图4

（a） 2000-2020年城市群PM2.5归因死亡;（b）2000-2020年城市群每百万人PM2.5归因死亡数"

图5

2000-2010年和2010-2020年四个城市群PM2.5归因死亡变化的分解"

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