河南“21.7”特大暴雨的区域集合预报检验和预报偏差分析

廉丹华, 袁慧玲, 王婧羽, 陈法敬

Verification and error analysis of regional ensemble forecasts for the torrential rain on 20 July 2021 in Henan province

Danhua Lian, Huiling Yuan, Jingyu Wang, Fajing Chen

表2 针对20日14时至20时的6 h累积降水，不同预报时效下CMA?REPS和NCEP?GEFS概率预报的不同阈值的BS评分

Table 2 Brier scores of probabilistic forecasts from CMA?REPS and NCEP?GEFS from 14:00 to 20:00 CST on 20 July with different leadtimes for different thresholds

0.1 mm 10 mm 25 mm 50 mm 42~48 h (CMA) 0.177 0.067 0.037 0.015 30~36 h (CMA) 0.192 0.052 0.032 0.015 18~24 h (CMA) 0.172 0.053 0.029 0.015 6~12 h (CMA) 0.245 0.059 0.024 0.013 6~12 h (NCEP) 0.347 0.075 0.037 0.014