河南“21.7”特大暴雨的区域集合预报检验和预报偏差分析

廉丹华, 袁慧玲, 王婧羽, 陈法敬

Verification and error analysis of regional ensemble forecasts for the torrential rain on 20 July 2021 in Henan province

Danhua Lian, Huiling Yuan, Jingyu Wang, Fajing Chen

表1 不同预报时效下控制预报（mem00）和各集合成员7月20日14时至20时的累积降水量最大值 (mm)

Table 1 Maximum values of accumulative precipitation (unit: mm) from 14:00 to 20:00 CST on 20 July for the control member (mem00) and perturbed ensemble members with different initialization times

预报时效 42-48 h 30-36 h 18-24 h 6-12 h mem00 33.6 85.4 117.0 70.1 mem01 19.9 26.9 43.4 40.5 mem02 19.9 45.9 36.2 53.6 mem03 45.4 34.2 59.3 86.8 mem04 19.8 25.8 29.4 50.5 mem05 34.4 29.5 58.8 57.1 mem06 26.0 26.6 61.1 110.8 mem07 23.5 36.3 107.5 94.7 mem08 33.4 79.4 46.6 50.7 mem09 36.4 46.6 40.4 46.9 mem10 22.3 35.3 49.9 41.1 mem11 43.8 61.4 74.1 54.9 mem12 28.1 34.2 95.6 63.3 mem13 28.7 36.5 38.5 71.7 mem14 44.3 31.1 50.5 96.4