河南“21.7”特大暴雨的区域集合预报检验和预报偏差分析

廉丹华, 袁慧玲, 王婧羽, 陈法敬

Verification and error analysis of regional ensemble forecasts for the torrential rain on 20 July 2021 in Henan province

Danhua Lian, Huiling Yuan, Jingyu Wang, Fajing Chen

图11 20日17时（a） 07和（b） 04成员预报的925 hPa上的风场和散度（10-4 s-1），（c） 20日14时至20时的观测数据与20日08时预报累积6 h降水叠加地形图，其中等值线代表降水大于25 mm·(6 h）-1的区域

Fig.11 Wind and divergence (10-4 s-1) at 925 hPa of (a) member 07 and (b) member 04 at 17:00 CST on 20 July，and (c) observed and forecasted 6 h accumulative precipitation overlaying the topographic map during the study period，where contours represent areas with precipitation greater than 25 mm·(6 h)-1