1.YaleNUIST Center on Atmospheric Environment，Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology，Nanjing，210044，China； 2．School of Atmospheric Physics，Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology，Nanjing，210044，China
{{custom_authorNodes}}
{{custom_bio.content}}
{{custom_bio.content}}
{{custom_authorNodes}}
Collapse
History+
Published
2016-11-20
Issue Date
2016-11-20
Abstract
This paper evaluates the accuracy of simulated winter haze days from October 2014 to March 2015 based on WRF/CMAQ model and discusses the possible reason of inaccurate forecast for haze day.The research show that：(1)The simulations of WRF/CMAQ model show coincidence with observation in relative humidity and PM2.5，which are base variables for forecasting.The average error is 2～5 km between atmospheric visibility simulation values and observation values.In Coastal and offshore cities，the simulated visibility is significantly greater than observed，and root mean square error exceeds 10 km.(2)In cities where visibility is simulated better(i.e.Nanjing，Zhenjiang，Changzhou，Suzhou，Yangzhou)，the difference between simulated days and observed haze ones is less than 10 days.The simulated value of haze days is far less than observed，and the largest error is more than 20day in eastern coastal cities such as Yancheng，Nantong and Lianyungang，where there is a large simulated value peak.(3)A preliminary discussion on possible causes of differences between observed and simulated atmosphere visibility is described in this paper.A higher simulated visibility value is caused by some factors such as small simulated proportion of ECtoPM2.5，underestimation of watersoluble ions resulting in a lower simulated aerosol extinction coefficient，lower simulation value of relative humidity and lager simulated value of wind speed in some area.
Chen Xinhao1，2，Wang Yongwei1，2*，Ren Xia1，2，Wang Kefei1，Liu Cheng1，Huang Jianping1，Zhang Yuanyuan1.
Simulation and evaluation of haze day in Jiangsu Province based on WRF/CMAQ model in winter，2014[J]. Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences), 2016, 52(6): 961
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
References
[1] 张小曳，孙俊英，王亚强等．我国雾－霾成因及其治理的思考．科学通报，2013，58(13)：1178－1187.(Zhang X Y，Sun J Y，Wang Y Q，et al.Factors contributing to haze and fog in China.China Science Bulletin，2013，58：1178－1187.) [2] Shao M，Tang X，Zhang Y，et al.City clusters in China：air and surface water pollution.Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment，2006，4(7)：353－361. [3] 史 军，崔林丽．长江三角洲城市群霾的演变特征及影响因素研究．中国环境科学，2013，33(12)：2113－2122.(Shi J，Cui L L．Characteristics and influencing factors of haze in the Yangtze River Delta region.China Environmental Science，2013，33(12)：2113－2122.) [4] 吴 丹，于亚鑫，夏俊荣等．南京市灰霾天气的长时间变化特征及其气候原因探讨．大气科学学报，2016，39(2)：232－242.(Wu D，Yu Y X，Xia J R，et al.Longterm variation in haze days and related climatic factors in Nanjing.Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences，2016，39(2)：232－242.) [5] Chang D，Song Y，Liu B．Visibility trends in six megacities in China 1973－2007.Atmospheric Research，2009，94(2)：161－167. [6] 张蓬勃，管兆勇，邵鹏程等．江苏冬季霾日数的年代际变化与环流异常和区域增暖的可能联系．热带气象学报，2015，31(1)：103－111.(Zhang P B，Guan Z Y，Shao P C，et al.The decadal variability of winter haze days in Jiangsu and the contact between the circulation anomalies and regional heating.Journal of Tropical Meteorology，2015，31(1)：103－111.) [7] 刘端阳，魏建苏，严文莲等.1980－2012年江苏省城市霾日的时空分布及成因分析．环境科学，2014(9)：3247－3255.(Liu D，Wei J，Yan W L，et al.Trends of Urban Haze in Jiangsu Province China over the Past 33 Years.Environmental Science，2014(9)：3247－3255.) [8] 吴 丹，于亚鑫，夏俊荣等．南京市灰霾天气的长时间变化特征及其气候原因探讨．大气科学学报，2016，39(2)：232－242.(Wu D，Yu Y X，Xia J R，et al.Longterm variation in haze days and related climatic factors in Nanjing.Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences，2016，39(2)：232－242.) [9] 刘 梅，严文莲，张 备等.2013年1月江苏雾霾天气持续和增强机制分析．气 象，2014(7)：835－843.(Liu M，Yan W L，Zhang B，et al.Analysis on persistence and intensification mechanism of fog and haze in Jiangsu in January 2013.Meteorological Monthly，2014(7)：835－843.) [10] 张人禾，李 强，张若楠.2013年1月中国东部持续性强雾霾天气产生的气象条件分析．中国科学 地球科学(中文版)，2014，44(1)：27－36.(Zhang R H，Li Q，Zhang R N．Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013.Science China：Earth Sciences，2014，44(1)：27－36.) [11] 杨卫芬，银 燕，魏玉香等．霾天气下南京PM2.5中金属元素污染特征及来源分析．中国环境科学，2010，30(1)：12－17.(Yang W F，Yin Y，Wei Y X，et al.Characteristics and sources of metal elements in PM2.5 during hazy days in Nanjing.China Environmental Science，2010，30(1)：12－17.) [12] 黄 成，陈长虹，李 莉等．长江三角洲地区人为源大气污染物排放特征研究．环境科学学报，2011，31(9)：1858－1871.(Huang C，Chen C H，Li L，et al.Anthropogenic air pollutant emission characteristics in the Yangtze River Delta region，China.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae，2011，31(9)：1858－1871.) [13] Bravo M A，Fuentes M，Zhang Y，et al.Comparison of exposure estimation methods for air pollutants：ambient monitoring data and regional air quality simulation.Environmental Research，2012，116：1－10. [14] Chen D S，Cheng S Y，Liu L，et al.An integrated MM5CMAQ modeling approach for assessing transboundary PM10 contribution to the host city of 2008 Olympic summer games — Beijing，China.Atmospheric Environment，2007，41(6)：1237－1250. [15] 李 锋，朱 彬，安俊岭等.2013年12月初长江三角洲及周边地区重霾污染的数值模拟．中国环境科学，2015(7)：1965－1974.(Li F，Zhu B，An J L，et al.Modeling study of a severe haze episode occurred over the Yangtze River Delta and its surrounding regions during early December，2013.China Environmental Science，2015(7)：1965－1974.) [16] 朱莉莉，晏平仲，王自发等．江苏省级区域空气质量数值预报模式效果评估．中国环境监测，2015，31(2)：17－23.(Zhu L L，Yan P Z，Wang Z F，et al.An operational evaluation of the regional air quality forecast modeling system in Jiangsu.Environmental Monitoring in China，2015，31(2)：17－23.) [17] 吴其重，王自发，徐文帅等．多模式模拟评估奥运赛事期间可吸入颗粒物减排效果．环境科学学报，2010，30(9)：1739－1748.(Wu Q Z，Wang Z F，Xu W S，et al.Multimodel simulation of PM10 during the 2008 Beijing olympic games：Effectiveness of emission restrictions.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae，2010，30(9)：1739－1748.) [18] 王自发，吴其重，Alex G等．北京空气质量多模式集成预报系统的建立及初步应用．南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版)，2009，1(1)：19－26.(Wang Z F，Wu Q Z，Alex G，et al.Ensemble air quality multi models forecast system for Beijing(EMSBeijing)：Model description and preliminary application.Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)，2009，1(1)：19－26.) [19] 于兴娜，李新妹，登增然等．北京雾霾天气期间气溶胶光学特性．环境科学，2012，33(4)：1057－1062.(Yu X N，Li X M，Deng Z R，et al.Optical properties of aerosol during hazefog episodes in Beijing.Environmental Science，2012，33(4)：1057－1062.) [20] 黄怡民，刘子锐，陈 宏等．北京夏冬季霾天气下气溶胶水溶性离子粒径分布特征．环境科学，2013，34(4)：1236－1244.(Huang Y M，Liu Z R，Chen H，et al.Characteristics of mass size distributions of watersoluble inorganic ions during summer and winter haze days of Beijing.Environmental Science，2013，34(4)：1236－1244.) [21] Lin Y L，Farley R D，Orville H D．Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model.Journal of Applied Meteorology，1983，22：1065－1092. [22] Rutledge S A，Hobbs P V．The mesoscale and microscale structure and organization of clouds and precipitation in midlatitude cyclones.Ⅻ：A diagnostic modeling study of precipitation development in narrow cloudfrontal rainbands.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences，1984，41(20)：2949－2972. [23] Mlawer E J，Taubman S J，Brown P D，et al.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres：RRTM，a validated correlatedk model for the longwave.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres，1997，102(14)：16663－16682. [24] Yerramilli A，Challa V S，Dodla V B R，et al.Simulation of surface ozone pollution in the central gulf coast region using WRF/chem model：Sensitivity to PBL and land surface physics.Advances in Meteorology，2010，Volume 2010，Article ID 319138，doi：10.1155/2010/319138. [25] 王咏薇，伍见军，杜 钦等．不同城市冠层参数化方案对重庆高密度建筑物环境的数值模拟研究．气象学报，2013，71(6)：1130－1145.(Wang Y W，Wu J J，Du Q，et al.Numerical study of the Chongqing highdensity buildings environment by the WRF with the different urban canopy schemes.Acta Meteorological Sinica，2013，71(6)：1130－1145.) [26] Li M，Zhang Q，Kurokawa J，et al.MIX：A mosaic Asian anthropogenic emission inventory for the MICSAsia and the HTAP projects.Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics Discussions，2015，15(23)，34813－34869. [27] 陆 燕，王勤耕，翟一然等．长江三角洲城市群人为热排放特征研究．中国环境科学，2014，34(2)：295－301.(Lu Y，Wang Q G，Zhai Y R，et al.Anthropogenic heat emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region.China Environmental Science，2014，34(2)：295－301.) [28] 中国气象局．前向散射能见度仪观测规范(试行)，2009.(The forward scattering visibility meter observation criterion(trial)．China Meteorological Administration，2009.) [29] 王 瑞，周学东，李崇志等．江苏省能见度的人工与自动观测差异分析．气象科学，2015，35(2)：183－188.(Wang R，Zhou X D，Li C Z，et al.Analysis on visibility difference between manual and automatic observation in Jiangsu.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences，2015，35(2)：183－188.) [30] 中华人民共和国气象行业标准．QX/T 113－2010.(Meteorological Standard of the People’s Republic of China.QX/T 113－2010.) [31] Chow J C，Bachmann J D．Visibility：science and regulation.Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association，2002，52(9)：973－999. [32] Larson S M，Cass G R．Characteristics of summer middy low visibility events in the Los Angeles area.Environmental Science and Technology，1989，23：281－288. [33] Malm W C．Considerations in the measurements of visibility.Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association，1979，29：1042－1052. [34] 朱莉莉，晏平仲，王自发等．江苏省级区域空气质量数值预报模式效果评估．中国环境监测，2015，31(2)：17－23.(Zhu L L，Yan P Z，Wang Z F，et al.An operational evaluation of the regional air quality forecast modeling system in Jiangsu.Environmental Monitoring in China，2015，31(2)：17－23.) [35] 沈铁迪，王体健，陈璞珑等．南京城区夏秋季能见度与PM2.5化学成分的关系．中国环境科学，2015(3)：652－658.(Shen T D，Wang T J，Chen P L，et al.Relationship between atmospheric visibility and chemical composition of PM2.5 in the summer and autumn of Nanjing.China Environmental Science，2015(3)：652－658.) [36] Martin R V，Jacob D J，Yantosca R M，et al.Global and regional decreases in tropospheric oxidants from photochemical effects of aerosols.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres，2003，108(3)：2002－2622. [37] Tie X，Madronich S，Walters S，et al.Assessment of the global impact of aerosols on tropospheric oxidants.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres，2005，110(D3)．DOI：10.1029/2004JD005359. [38] Deng X，Tie X，Wu D，et al.Longterm trend of visibility and its characterizations in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region，China.Atmospheric Environment，2008，42(7)：1424－1435. [39] Chen L W A，Chow J C，Doddridge B G，et al.Analysis of a summertime PM2.5 and haze episode in the midAtlantic region.Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association，2003，53(8)：946－956. [40] Pratsinis S，Ellis E，Novakov T，et al.The carbon containing component of the Los Angeles aerosol：source apportionment and contributions to the visibility budget.Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association，1984，34(6)：643－650.
PDF(4146753 KB)
