南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2016, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (6): 961.
• • 下一篇
陈欣昊1,2,王咏薇1,2*,任 侠1,2,王恪非1,2,刘 诚1,黄建平1,张园园1
Chen Xinhao1,2,Wang Yongwei1,2*,Ren Xia1,2,Wang Kefei1,Liu Cheng1,Huang Jianping1,Zhang Yuanyuan1
摘要: 评估了WRF/CMAQ数值模式对2014年10月—2015年3月江苏省冬半年霾日的模拟准确性,并探讨了导致霾日预报不准确的可能原因.研究表明:(1)WRF/CMAQ模型中霾日预报基准量相对湿度、PM2.5的模拟趋势与观测比较吻合.大气能见度模拟值与观测值的平均值误差为2~5 km.临海及近海城市大气能见度模拟值普遍大于观测值,均方根误差超过10 km以上.(2)能见度模拟较好的城市(南京、镇江、常州、苏州、扬州),观测霾日与模拟霾日之间误差小于10 d,东边沿海城市盐城、南通、连云港等能见度模拟存在较大峰值的城市模拟最差误差超过10 km以上,模拟出的霾日数远小于观测到的霾日数,误差超过20 d.(3)对能见度预报可能造成偏差的原因进行了初步探讨,EC在PM2.5中所占比份模拟偏小、水溶性离子等模拟值被低估等造成气溶胶消光系数偏小以及部分地区相对湿度模拟值偏低,风速模拟偏大,都使得能见度模拟值偏大.
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