南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2023, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (3): 363372.doi: 10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2023.03.001
• • 下一篇
Yu Fang1,2, Chunhong Jia1, Siqi Wu1, Fan Min1,2()
摘要:
时间序列预测是大数据发展背景下的重要研究课题,具有广泛的应用前景,其主要任务是根据时序数据反映的发展规律去推测未来某阶段的走势,但大多数预测模型未能充分考虑残差带来的影响,无法取得更优的预测结果.提出一种三支残差修正的融合时序预测模型,能够有效地将残差圈定在一定范围内,提高时间序列的预测精度.首先,利用时间序列分解算法STL (Seasonal?Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Loess)将时间序列分解为趋势项、周期项和余项;其次,针对分解后的三个分量,设计轻量级梯度提升机(Lightweight Gradient Boosting Machine,LightGBM)和时间卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Network,TCN)的融合预测模型;最后,结合三支决策理论设计了三支残差修正算法,修正余项预测过程中产生的残差,进而修正时间序列的预测结果.实验结果证明,提出的模型在绝大多数情况下优于其他对比模型,预测效果更好.
中图分类号:
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