南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2011, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4): 481–492.
• • 上一篇
周祖刚1,2，谈哲敏1**，张熠1，姜勇强1,2
Zhou Zu-Gaug，Tun Zhe-Min，Zhang Yi，Jiunh Yong一Qiang
摘要： 以第五代中尺度模式(MME)为基础，木文对一次南京大暴雨个例进行了三组数值模拟试验，研究了模式湿物理过程参数化方案的组合对梅雨暴雨降水预报的影响.试验结果表明:模式的积云对流
参数化方案的选用对南京大暴雨的预报至关重要，积云对流参数化方案的选用比边界层参数化对暴雨数值预报的影响大;对20 km模式分辨率而言，采用单一的积云对流参数化方案时，Bctts-Millcr方案占
显著优势;模式粗、细网格采用不同的积云对流参数化方案进行组合，可以改进模式降水预报，对于60 kmi 20 km的二重嵌套网格来说，Anthcns-Kuo and Bctts-Millcr或者Kain-Fritsch and Bctts-Millcr组合
具有一定的优势.在此基础上，积云对流参数化方案与不同微物理过程组合可以进一步改进梅雨锋暴雨的预报，不同组合方案预报降水的中心位置和强度各不相同.另外，暴雨的分布、中心位置和强度对边界
层参数化方案的选用表现出一定的敏感性.
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