南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2012, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 228235.
• • 上一篇
李力,江静**,周洋
Li Li,Jiang Jing,Zhou Yang
摘要: 利用中尺度大气数值模式(MM5)研究了全球气候变暖的背景下西北太平洋热带气旋活动的气候特征.设计了两组模拟试验,每组实验模拟44个热带气旋共88个个例,分别代表现在和未来情景下热带气旋活动.现在情景模拟,采用1971-2000年平均的美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)的再分析资
料作为初始场和侧边界场,表示现在的气候背景;未来情景的模拟则以联合国气候变化政府间专家委员会(IPCC)第四次评估中的美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL)CM2. 0模式模拟的A2情景下2031 -2060年数据作为初始场和侧边界场,表示未来全球变暖的背景.
A2情景是指在2000-2100年这100年间,对大气中的二氧化碳分子浓度由现在的380 ppm增长至800ppm.结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,热带气旋的强度明显较强,相比较现在的气候背景,在西部生成的热带气旋比东部更强些,而且未来的热带气旋的路径整体上比现在的热带气旋偏东.热带气旋活动与
大尺度环流背景有密切联系,未来热带气旋在130?E以西增强,主要是由于该区域海表面温度的增高,而在试验区中南部5?附近热带气旋减弱可能与风切变以及相对湿度的变化有关,热带气旋路径的变化则与未来西太平洋副高强度偏强、脊线偏南有关.
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