基于混沌算子模型的人口数据序列预测*

南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2011, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4): 459–464.

基于混沌算子模型的人口数据序列预测*

邹晓玫¹**，修春波²

出版日期:2015-04-14 发布日期:2015-04-14
作者简介: (1.南开大学周恩来政府管理学院，天津，300071; 2.天津工业大学电气工程与自动化学院，天津，300160)
基金资助:
天津市自然科学基金(10JC:YBJC:00074 , 2010TSTC:0072 )

A prediction of population series of China based on the chaoti}operator model

Zou Xiao-Mei¹ ，Xiu Chun Bo²

Online:2015-04-14 Published:2015-04-14
About author: (1 .Ghou Enlai School of Uovcrnmcnt，Nankai University,Tianjin, 300071，China
2. School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tanjin, 300160，China)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用混沌算子预测模型对我国人II出生率、死亡率、自然增长率以及人II总数等数据进行预测分析.多个基木混沌算子单元通过加权和的形式构成预测模型.利用己知的人II数据组成预测网络的
训练样木，根据网络预测值与期望值之间的误差，调节各混沌算子参数来减小误差，以此改变预测模型的动力学特性，使之逐渐与被预测系统的动力学特性相一致，从而完成预测模型参数的调节和人II数据
的预测.与现有预测方法相比，该方法具有更高的预测精度.预测结果表明未来几年我国人II自然增长率将处于卜降的趋势，但人II总数仍处于上升的趋势.预计201年我国人II总数将达到13. 7亿左右.

Abstract: A model based on chaotic operators is proposed for prediction of the population series of China, including natality, mortality, natural growth rate, and population size. Our model is composed of weighted sum of some
chaotic operators.Training samples arc taken from published data.丁he control parameters of chaotic operators arc adjusted according to the errors between predicted and expected values.丁he dynamic behavior of the model is
changeable and is approximate to that of the predicted system. Comparing to other methods, our model has a higher precision of prediction. Our prediction results show that the natural growth rate of Chinese population in the
following years will be declining, but the population will always be growing, It is estimated that in China the population will be up to 1. 37 billion in 2015.

邹晓玫¹**，修春波². 基于混沌算子模型的人口数据序列预测*[J]. 南京大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, 47(4): 459–464.

Zou Xiao-Mei¹ ，Xiu Chun Bo²
. A prediction of population series of China based on the chaoti}operator model
[J]. Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences), 2011, 47(4): 459–464.

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