摘要: 一种基于国家气象中心业务中尺度模式的配料法( ingredients?based methodology) 强降水预报方法已经研究完成, 并投入业务试运行. 该方法依据深厚湿对流系统长时间的维持将产生强降水这一
配料法的预报原理, 根据中国不同区域的天气特点, 选取了对强降水( 25 mm) 有显著影响的四类因子( 水汽因子、 动力因子、 不稳定因子及热力因子) , 在一定的物理条件约束下, 利用经验和统计相结合的方
法建立了 配料!综合指数与强降水之间的关系. 该方法以国家气象中心业务中尺度数值模式 MM5( PSU/ NCAR M esoscale Model)的预报场作为原始资料计算配料, 再根据配料法预报方程作出全国 737
个基准站和基本站未来 24h 强降水的分级预报( 25 mm~ 50 mm, ?50 mm). 通过 2004- 2007 年夏季MM5 降水预报与配料法降水预报的对比发现, 配料法降水预报优于 MM5 模式降水预报, 具有较高的实用价值.
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