南京大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2019, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (4): 688698.doi: 10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2019.04.019
Wenqi Wang,Dong Wang(),Yuankun Wang
摘要:
长江三角洲太湖流域属于典型的北亚热带季风气候区,气候变化、快速城镇化和人类活动使得极端气象灾害的影响加剧.极端降水是形成洪水的主要来源之一,分析降水极值特性是研究洪水的一种必要且有效的手段.以湖西浙西区96个站点2006—2012年的日降水数据为例,选取极端降水量(R95P)、一日最大降水量(RX1D)、最大连续五日降水量(RX5D)、降水强度(SDII)和强降水日数(R10,R20和R50)七个极端降水指数,研究降水极值空间分布规律.结果表明,极端降水量在湖西区北部呈现较高值,降水强度在浙西山区和湖西山区以及东北部地区呈现较高值,其余五个指数均显示,地势较高的浙西山区极端降水指数相应较高.进一步对丹阳、金坛、溧阳、宜兴、安吉和湖州六个代表站1961—2015年的降水极值分析,利用广义极值分布(Generalized Extreme Value Distribution,GEV)和广义帕累托分布(Generalized Pareto Distribution,GPD)两种极值模型进行分布拟合.研究发现,GPD的拟合效果优于GEV,各个站点的分布模型参数也有差异,对两种分布下不同重现期的极端降水量值进行对比,为风险防范和工程设计安全提供了科学依据.另外,汛期降水的空间分布差异性较大,汛期和非汛期的对比结果显示极值统计模型参数也有较大差异,主要体现在阈值和尺度参数上.对于特定季节尤其是暴雨多发期的极端降水事件,建议利用汛期的降水极值进行统计模拟,有助于更好地刻画降水极值特性.
中图分类号:
1 | 张利平,杜鸿,夏军 等 . 气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展. 地理科学进展,2011,30(11):1370-1379. |
Zhang L P , Du H , Xia J ,et al . Progress in the study of extreme hydrologic events under climate change. Progress in Geography,2011,30(11):1370-1379. | |
2 | 孔锋,史培军,方建 等 . 全球变化背景下极端降水时空格局变化及其影响因素研究进展和展望. 灾害学,2017,32(2):165-174. |
Kong F , Shi P J , Fang J ,et al . Advances and prospects of spatiotemporal pattern variation of extreme precipitation and its affecting factors under the background of global climate change. Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(2):165-174. | |
3 | Cavalcanti I F A , Carril A F , Penalba O C ,et al . Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin–Review and new results from observations and climate simulations. Journal of Hydrology,2015,523:211-230. |
4 | Naveau P , Guillou A , Rietsch T . A non?parame?tric entropy?based approach to detect changes in climate extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series B (Statistical Methodology),2014,76(5):861-884. |
5 | Rietsch T , Naveau P , Gilardi N ,et al . Network design for heavy rainfall analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmosphere,2013,118(23): 13075-13086. |
6 | Mascaro G . On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability. Journal of Hydrology,2018,559:266-281. |
7 | Iliopoulou T , Koutsoyiannis D , Montanari A . Characterizing and modeling seasonality in extreme rainfall. Water Resources Research,2018,54(9): 6242-6258. |
8 | 时光训,刘健,马力 等 . 1970-2014年长江流域极端降水过程的时空变化研究. 水文,2017,37(4):77-85. |
Shi G X , Liu J , Ma L ,et al . Spatio?temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in Yangtze River Basin during 1970-2014. Journal of China Hydrology,2017,37(4):77-85. | |
9 | 杨卫,张利平,闪丽洁 等 . 汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征. 气候变化研究进展,2015,11(1):15-21. |
Yang W , Zhang L P , Shan L J ,et al . Spatiotemporal distribution features of extreme hydrological events in the Hanjiang River Basin. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2015,11(1):15-21. | |
10 | 张利平,杨艳蓉,秦琳琳 等 . 未来情景下南水北调中线工程水源区极端降水分布特征. 气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):29-34. |
Zhang L P , Yang Y R , Qin L L ,et al . Distribution of extreme precipitation events in water source area for the middle route project of South?to?North water transfer Under A2,A1B,B1 scenarios. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2013,9(1):29-34. | |
11 | 张婷,魏凤英 . 华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征. 气象学报,2009,67(3):442-451. |
Zhang T , Wei F Y . . Probability distribution of precipitation extremes during raining seasons in South China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2009,67(3):442-451. | |
12 | 李胜利,巩在武,石振彬 . 近50年来山东省极端降水指数变化特征分析. 水土保持研究,2016,23(4):120-127. |
Li S L , Gong Z W , Shi Z B . . Characteristics of change in extreme precipitation indices in Shandong province in recent 50 years. Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(4):120-127. | |
13 | 慈晖,张强,张江辉 等 . 1961-2010年新疆极端降水过程时空特征. 地理研究,2014,33(10):1881-1891. |
Ci H , Zhang Q , Zhang J H ,et al . Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation events within Xinjiang during 1961-2010. Geographical Research,2014,33(10):1881-1891. | |
14 | 宋晓猛,张建云,孔凡哲 等 . 北京地区降水极值时空演变特征. 水科学进展,2017,28(2):161-173. |
Song X M , Zhang J Y , Kong F Z . . Spatio?temporal variation characteristics of precipitation extremes in Beijing. Advances in Water Science,2017,28(2):161-173. | |
15 | Coles S . An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. London:Springer,2001,45-90. |
16 | 袁嘉晨,胡庆芳,陈元芳 等 . 基于极值理论的太湖流域降水极值分析. 水电能源科学,2017,35(7):1-5. |
Yuan J C , Hu Q F , Chen Y F . et al . Spatio?temporal variation characteristics of precipitation extremes in Beijing. Advances in Water Science,2017,35(7):1-5. | |
17 | 宋晓猛,张建云,孔凡哲 . 基于极值理论的北京市极端降水概率分布研究. 中国科学:技术科学,2018,48(6):639-650. |
Song X M , Zhang J Y , Kong F Z . . Probability distribution of extreme precipitation in Beijing based on extreme value theory. SCIENTIA SINICA (Technologica),2018,48(6):639-650. | |
18 | 石先武,方伟华,林伟 等 . 基于极值理论的中国台风降水分布不确定性分析. 北京师范大学学报 (自然科学版),2011,47(5):493-501. |
Shi X W , Fang W H , Lin W ,et al . Uncertainty of China typhoon rainfall probability estimation with different extreme?value models. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science),2011,47(5):493-501. | |
19 | 吴浩云,王银堂,胡庆芳 等 . 太湖流域61年来降水时空演变规律分析. 水文,2013,33(2):75-81.Wu H Y,Wang Y T,Hu Q Fet al, . Tempo? spatial change of precipitation in Taihu Lake Basin during recent 61 Years. Journal of China Hydrology, 2013,33(2):75-81.) |
20 | 周北平,史建桥,李少魁 等 . 近53年长三角地区极端降水时空变化分析. 长江科学院院报,2016,33(9):5-9. |
Zhou B P , Shi J Q , Li S K ,et al . Spatio?temporal variations of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta during 1960-2012. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2016,33(9):5-9. | |
21 | 于文金,阎永刚,邹欣庆 . 太湖流域暴雨时空特征研究. 自然资源学报,2012,27(5):766-777. |
Yu W J,Yan Y G,Zou X Q.Study on spatial and temporal characteristics of rainstorm in Taihu Lake basin. Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(5):766-777.) | |
22 | Akaike H . A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,1974,19(6):716-723. |
23 | Schwarz G . Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics,1978,6(2):461-464. |
[1] | 陆 燕,王勤耕*,张艳燕. 长江三角洲黑碳排放特征研究[J]. 南京大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 51(3): 535-. |
[2] | Markushev Dragan1,Rabasovic Mihailo1,Lukic Mladena2 Cojbasic Zarko3,Todorovic Dragan4 . 实时脉冲光声法用于分子弛豫时间的测定[J]. 南京大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 49(1): 5-12. |
[3] | 潘光波** , 许有鹏, 丁瑾佳, 叶正伟 . 江淮下游平原地区降水时空变化: 以江苏里下河腹部区为例* [J]. 南京大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 46(6): 671-680. |
|